As long as Crist stays healthy, yes. Notre Dame is a bad situation this year, because Weis decided that it was a good idea to not recruit a QB for the 2009 season. Because Clausen left early, it left Crist(a 5 star QB) Nate Montana (A walk-on) and Tommy Rees(A true freshman)
Notre Dame scored all of its 24 points against UM with Crist in the game. Crist had an Eye injury after the first series which knocked him out for the first half. The two back-ups combined for 2 key interceptions which led to UM points.
In all, I think the Irish will likely cover the 3.5 point spread, but only if Crist stays healthy. If Montana comes in, kiss your money good-bye.
Now I agree with you that Kelly will get it turned around at some point, but I think we'll see a year much like Florida's, Alabama's, Oklahoma's, USC's, or Texas' in their first years with their good coaches. Something like 7-5/8-4/9-3 with the team playing much better in the second half of the year than the first half.