I would find it hard to believe that Tolbert won't have a good day even if he doesn't get that many carries because he is up against the Raiders who haven't done that well against the run.
I think your match is going to be a lot closer than projected because I don't think Chris Johnson will have anywhere near his projected amount of points and Rivers probably won't have too many points either because I think they are going to run a lot against the Raiders poor run defense.