The Packers won't dominate, but they are the team to beat in the north. The Vikes are back to rebuilding, the Lions don't have all the pieces in place, yet, but I do think they will be much harder to beat then they have been. The Bear did win the division last year, but alot things did go their way: They went against 2 third string QB's, barely beat an opponent that had 18 penalties, and the infamous TD that wasn't a TD. Plus, some of the playoff team they played, they played in Chicago. just my opinion on that.
The Pack did get a bit lucky during the end of the season with the right teams losing when they did, but their run in the playoffs wasn't all luck, how they dismantled the Falcons shows that. Mike Pouncey being out for the SB wasn't the Steelers problem, didn't help, but it was bad decisions as whole by the team: turnovers were key in that game. 3-0 iirc. There is always an element of luck in football, but luck doesn't win everything.